According to a recent study, it was estimated that the environmental impact of international aviation amounted to 280 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent in 2020. Even after the coronavirus (COVID-19) shock, by 2050 the emission levels under the current policy projection with a low emission scenario will be twice as large as the 2019 CO2 emissions.
Carbon dioxide emissions level from international aviation between 1990 and 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)*
Characteristic
Historical emissions
Post COVID-19 Current policy projection (low emissions)
Post COVID-19 Current policy projection (high emissions)
Pre-COVID-19 current policy projection (low emissions)
Pre-COVID-19 current policy projection (high emissions)
* Values described here are relevant for international aviation only. It does not incorporate CO2 emissions from domestic flights.
Two scenarios were developed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on international aviation CO2 emissions:
The Low emission scenario assumes a 54 percent decline in international aviation emissions in 2020 compared to 2019 levels and a 60 % less demand for international aviation in 2021 compared to 2019. Low emission prediction assumes that emission levels will be back at 2019 levels by roughly 2029.
The High emission scenario assumes a 54 percent decline in international aviation in 2020 compared to 2019 and a 40 percent decrease in 2021 compared to 2019. Accordingly, aviation emissions will be back at 2019 levels by 2023.
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Climate Action Tracker. (August 3, 2021). Carbon dioxide emissions level from international aviation between 1990 and 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)* [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 23, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155486/co2-emissions-international-aviation-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. "Carbon dioxide emissions level from international aviation between 1990 and 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)*." Chart. August 3, 2021. Statista. Accessed December 23, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155486/co2-emissions-international-aviation-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. (2021). Carbon dioxide emissions level from international aviation between 1990 and 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)*. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 23, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155486/co2-emissions-international-aviation-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions Level from International Aviation between 1990 and 2050, by Scenario (in Million Metric Tons of Co2 Equivalent)*." Statista, Statista Inc., 3 Aug 2021, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155486/co2-emissions-international-aviation-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker, Carbon dioxide emissions level from international aviation between 1990 and 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)* Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155486/co2-emissions-international-aviation-scenario/ (last visited December 23, 2024)
Carbon dioxide emissions level from international aviation between 1990 and 2050, by scenario (in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent)* [Graph], Climate Action Tracker, August 3, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155486/co2-emissions-international-aviation-scenario/
